Dissecting a Hand #1 [01.17.2006]
I was going to start a �Hand of the Week� type thing, but then I realized how lazy I am, and I don�t want to commit to having to do this every week just yet. So for now, I�m just going to call this, �Dissecting a Hand�.
To me this first hand is pretty straight forward. Although it�s definitely a tough decision, the pros and cons seemed obvious to me. I then saw the hand posted on a couple of various poker forums around the internet, and was in shock at how wrong some people were about the hand. I realized it was a great hand for dispelling certain misconceptions about tournaments, and the hand also has some math involved.
The hand took place during the $200+15 tournament on PokerStars that I recently won. When the hand took place, we were already in the money, and there were no significant prize jumps coming up anytime soon, so the number of players left is completely irrelevant.
Blinds were 4k/8k with an ante of 400. There were eight players at the table, and it folded to the cutoff (the guy to the right of the button). He moved all-in for 65,000. I was next to act with KQ suited and 105,000 chips.
A few people said this hand was about feel. The fact that I called meant I knew my opponent was bluffing. This couldn�t be further from the truth. I�m not psychic. The guy had a short stack and moved all-in. There�s absolutely no way I can pin him on a hand. Instead, I have to put him on a rather wide range of possible holdings. This hand is about math.
My opponent had eight big blinds and was in the cutoff. I had relatively little information about how he played, so I assumed he was a relatively solid tournament player (This late in the tournament, that�s not a terrible assumption). At that point, I had to come up with a range of holdings for him. So the question was, �what hands will a player with eight big blinds move all-in with in this spot?� He�s not quite desperate, but he�s short enough that stealing the blinds has enormous benefits. He increases his stack size by almost 25% if he�s successful, so his range is going to be rather wide.
A player in this spot is almost always pushing any ace and any pair, so those hands had to be included in the range. Most players will also go all-in with any two broadway cards here (QT, KJ, etc.) To round out the hands, I decided to throw in some suited kings, and a few of the bigger suited connecters. Finally, there is always the chance he has nothing, so I threw in a couple of terrible hands into the range like 74s and 53o. While technically it�s possible for him to have any hand, it�s important to include enough �representative trash hands� to represent the percent of the time he will show trash. Technically it would be better to go through every hand and assign a percent chance you think you will see that hand, but this method is much more efficient.
To figure out my equity against the given range in this spot, I use a program called PokerStove which is free for download from www.PokerStove.com. This is a great tool, especially for Sit�n�Go and tournament players. For player one, I simply plug in KQs, and for player two, I plug in the range I came up with for my opponent. In this case, that range is 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 74s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 92o, 75o, 54o.
Against the above range, KQs is a 54% favorite. To many people this is surprising. KQs is behind to the majority of the hands in that range including any ace and any pair. However, in those situations KQs is only a small dog, but it is a significant favorite against the other hands in that range. At the time I was playing the tournament, I didn�t have time to use PokerStove, but I�ve used it enough to be able to come up with semi-accurate estimates on the spot. I remember during this hand, I estimated myself to be even money vs. his range, which wasn�t far off at all.
The next logical question is, �If I was only a coin-flip against his range, why did I call?� The answer is simple. There were 15,000 other chips in the pot unaccounted for. In other words, when I lose the hand, I lose 65,000 chips, but when I win the hand, I win 80,000 chips. Assuming I�m only even money against his range, this means my equity is +7,500 chips.
Other players have looked at this hand and criticized me for not waiting for a better spot. They claim that I can fold this hand and wait for a larger edge to accumulate chips. The truth is that despite having an above average sized stack at this point in time, my stack is very small in relation to the blinds, and there isn�t much room to outplay my opponents. Sure, maybe I�ll get aces or kings soon and have a huge edge, but it�s more likely that I won�t. Many tournament players, good ones even, will make the mistake of passing up too many edges in tournaments to avoid going broke. I generally take every edge I can find for a couple reasons. First of all, it just seems logical that you are more likely to win a tournament if you take every edge rather than only some. On top of that, there is a significant advantage to gambling for all your chips. When you win, you will increase your stack size which will open up many more opportunities, especially when it comes to stealing pots and bluffing. In general, I advise tournament players to get over their fear of busting out of tournaments. You will never win a tournament without putting all your chips on the line multiple times.
So here�s how the hand played out: The cutoff open pushed to 65,000. I was next to act. By calling in that spot, I�m committing all of my chips (in other words if a blind were to reraise me all-in, I would be more than pot committed to call off my whole stack), so I decided to push all-in and increase my chances of having the blinds fold, which after all is what I want to make sure those 15,000 chips in the pot are dead. The blinds folded, and my opponent flipped up pocket threes. I was a very slight favorite, but as you all know, luck was on my side that day, and I won the all-in.
To view the actual hand history, you can go to http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/6215.
The goal of this article is to get the reader to put himself in my shoes, and see what I�m thinking about at the table. This hand is unique in that the math will never be the exact same in another hand, but if you think about these concepts away from the table, you will be much better able to handle these situations while you are at the table. If you enjoyed this article and/or found it helpful, please send me feedback at
[email protected]. Actually, if you hated it, or have some constructive criticism, I�d love to hear from you even more. If the general consensus is that this was a helpful article, I�ll be sure to post many more hands like this in the future.
� Thanks for reading
� Justin Bonomo
